While we had no big surprises in the overall Tucson Housing Market based on statistics just released by the Tucson Association of Realtors, we do have some interesting results from analyzing the local market data by zip code.
We traditionally have a slowdown during the December holidays that creates a dip in the number of homes that close in January. When activity picks up again after the holidays, we typically see an increase in pending sales in January. That’s just what’s happened in January with 504 units sold and 1287 units pending, an increase of 53.76% from December, 2008 but a decrease of 12.79% from one year ago. The average sales price went up by almost $10,000 to $208,133 from last month while the median sales price dipped about $5,000 to $163,250. Foreclosures and Short Sales represent almost 25% of all January sales.
At the end of January, the number of Active Listings was down 12.79% from last January. This is good news because it will eventually help stabilize our market by reducing the months of inventory, currently at 13 months for the overall market. Months of inventory is the number used by analysts to measure the health of the market and is determined by dividing the number of January closings (588) by the total number of Active Listings in January (7,694). The increase in pending sales in January should reduce this even further by the end of February.
The real telling numbers for Tucson could be found in breaking down the overall market stats for each individual zip code. In the higher price zip codes, supply continues to grow while demand is staying the same. Inventory is almost up to a 3 year supply, sales are nominal and average sales prices continue to decline. In the zip codes with more moderately priced homes, the ratios are almost at a “neutral” level, meaning that there’s just about the right number of homes for sale to meet the demand to buy so it’s neither a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.
Within the Northwest area zip code 85741, there’s only a 4.7 month supply of homes. This zip code includes neighborhoods such as Hartman Vistas, Countryside and most of the Mountain View High School District. Homes in this zip code typically sell for $150,000 to $200,000. Within zip code 85718 in the Catalina Foothills, there is a 33 month supply of homes. One year ago, the average home sale price in this area was $745,000. Now it’s $535,000.
Most are concluding that the market for affordable homes in Tucson is on the rebound. The luxury market continues to suffer with a 63 month inventory of homes over $1,000,000. And the worst of all is the condo market. While inventories are finally coming down, condos still aren’t selling. There were 467 condos for sale, with only 12 being sold in January. The primary reason for this is financing. Local lenders say there just isn’t any since most condo developments don’t qualify for the most popular loan out there today, FHA.
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